Bihar Election: Will BJP’s win in Bihar affect Bengal election?: The Bharatiya Janata Party has started preparations for the West Bengal elections with the victory in Bihar elections.
From Union Home Minister Amit Shah to top leaders of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, there are rallies in West Bengal.
The BJP’s focus is first on making its place in the tribal areas where they had received political support even earlier.
Top leaders of BJP from Amit Shah are visiting tribal areas in this direction.
The BJP is accusing Mamta government that the state government did nothing for the tribals and the help sent by the central government also did not allow them to reach them.
Amit Shah also announced during his two-day visit to West Bengal that the BJP is going to win the assembly elections next year with a two-thirds majority. At the same time, the total number of BJP MLAs in the West Bengal Assembly has not even reached ten.
But in West Bengal, BJP president Dilip Ghosh said, “The saffron wave seen in the neighbouring state of Bihar will blow the TMC in West Bengal. There is just a difference in the elections of these two states that we were in power in Bihar for 15 years but here we are challenging.”
Many political analysts believe that the victory in Bihar elections has boosted the morale of the RSS cadre and BJP workers working in West Bengal.
Because BJP contested only 110 seats and won 74 assembly seats.
But the question arises that the increased morale of the workers will be how many seats will be brought for the BJP in the next six months assembly elections.
Bengal is essential for BJP
The Modi-Shah era of the BJP has achieved a lot in just six years by hoisting the premiership in all the states of North India, forming a coalition government in Jammu and Kashmir, and opening an account in the northeastern states.
But for the BJP, Bihar and West Bengal were two states where it failed to make its base.
But BJP has emerged as the second-largest political power in Bihar elections. And now the challenge before the BJP is to demolish the TMC fort in West Bengal. But it is not so easy for BJP to do this.
In the year 2016, BJP fielded candidates for 291 seats, but BJP could not win even a total of ten seats.
In such a situation, the BJP needs to form a government in West Bengal on its own. A resounding victory in West Bengal is also essential for the 2024 general election.
But senior journalist Jayant Ghoshal believes that it is crucial for the BJP to win this state on an emotional level.
He says, “BJP has been trying to increase its capacity in West Bengal for many years. The top BJP leader Shyama Prasad Mukherjee, who was the birthplace of Jana Sangh, did nothing in his state.
That is why BJP has made many efforts in the past to make a place in West Bengal. But this time when the BJP also got the vote of the Bengali people in West Bengal by giving the slogan of ‘Jai Shri Ram’, it has increased the ambition of the BJP.
“But the politics of West Bengal cannot be compared to the politics of Bihar. Political likes and dislikes in Bihar are based on caste.
But since the Bhakti movement took place in Bengal and the level of education here is high, in such a situation the Dalit can also think that a person belonging to the upper caste will also understand our pain and will struggle to get rid of it. For this reason, parties like BSP based on caste did not arise here.”
Owaisi Effect in Hyderabad
The Congress, which emerged as the weakest link in the Bihar elections, has called AIMIM a vote-cutting party.
But Asaduddin Owaisi’s party has won Amour, Bahadurganj, Kochadhaman, Jokihat and Biasi assembly seats in Seemanchal area of Bihar.
Senior journalist Pulakesh Ghosh, who understands Mamata Banerjee’s politics closely, believes that due to the Owaisi factor, Mamata Banerjee has to change her strategies.
He says, “To understand the impact of the Bihar election on the Bengal election, it is important to understand the Owaisi factor. Owaisi’s party has won five seats in this election, out of which four assembly seats are located on the West Bengal border.
And with this, he has cut the vote of the Grand Alliance in 12-15 seats. In a way, he has helped BJP win this election. “
“Now the same will happen in Bengal. In 2016, TMC got 212 seats out of which Muslim votes play a decisivotersle in 98 seats. Out of this, the Muslim population is 30 per cent on thirty seats.
In the remaining 38 seats, the Muslim population is 20 per cent. Right now per cent has given the responsibility of handling these 68 seats to Mukul Rai. Owaisi’s activities will be more on these seats. “
How much will this victory help RSS?
Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has been actively preparing the land for the BJP in West Bengal for the last several years.
Thousands of branches are being set up every day in many places from Kolkata to the capital of West Bengal.
Not only this, but Sir Sangh Director Mohan Bhagwat is also playing a role in West Bengal on a personal level.
In such a situation, the question arises that what has this victory brought for the RSS workers already engaged in their efforts.
Is this a victory that the RSS workers can go among the people of West Bengal as a saffron wave?
Senior journalist Prabhakar Mani Tiwari believes that “This is not a victory that RSS workers can go among the voters.” This has indeed increased the morale of the voters.
But as before, the RSS will use the politics of polarization that they did during the panchayat elections and Lok Sabha elections. In such a situation, their biggest weapon here will be polarization so that they can get maximum seats in the assembly elections.”