Dreadly Lockdown: On April 14, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced to extend the lockdown by 19 days, Manju Bora, sitting in front of a TV set with husband Padam Singh Bora and two daughters in Nainital’s Talli Tal, just flashed a single question, “Hey Owner, how will I manage ?! “
Manju Bora’s “Tea-Magi’s shop is not available for weeks, the daily earning of 200-300 rupees is closed, and the money is borrowing.”
Rajesh Kumar and his brother Manoj Kumar of Delhi, about 300 km from Nainital, have to stretch their hands in front of the old parents for a living.
According to the National Hawkers’ Federation, 95 percent of the four crores of trawlers across the country are sitting at home, and the capital of this part of the Indian economy, which gives a daily turnover of eight thousand crores, is rapidly disintegrating.
Dreadly Lockdown: How many thousands of crores of rupees are wasted each day because of COVID-19
According to the Secretary-General of the Federation, Shaktiman Ghosh, from the sector selling underwear, gol gappas, fruits, vegetables, spices, cereals to mobile accessories, directly and indirectly – such as housekeepers, suppliers, small farmers and other people who are connected today They have reached the position as they “have not seen in their five decades in the organization.”
How expensive is lockdown?
The number of people involved in rickshaw-plying, working in homes and other people engaged in small businesses, who have not yet come up, is in crores, Shaktiman Ghosh said while talking on the phone from Kolkata.
While declaring to pursue the lockdown, perhaps the Prime Minister also mentioned, “If you look at it from the point of view of the economy, it has proved costly.”
According to an estimate by FICCI, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, associated with industry and business, the Indian economy is losing about forty thousand crores every day of the shutdown.
The president of the organization Sangeeta Reddy has said that between April-September 2020, there is a danger of leaving at least four crore jobs.
How many jobs will go
Well-known banks and rating agencies have already lowered the economy’s growth forecast – Barclay reduced the outlook for 2020 by two and a half percent, while Fitch Ratings thinks it could post a two percent increase. That is, according to that ADB i.e., Asian Development Bank seems more optimistic about four percent.
In the Economic Focus Report of South Asia, the World Bank has kept this increase between 2.5 and 2.8 percent, which, according to it, is the lowest in the last three decades.
But Professor V Upadhyay, a former teacher of economics at Delhi IIT, believes that the economy will go towards recession.
Professor Upadhyay says, ‘One month has already passed in the lockdown, and now it has been extended further, all the activities have stopped, and when it starts, it will take some time to get back on track. There is no question of that.
He considers the rate of growth to be very optimistic, pointing to the unemployment rate in the country, which has reached 23 percent at present, according to the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMI), a private sector accounting organization.
The most significant economic recession in the world for the next ten years from 1929 – known as the Great Depression, brought the unemployment rate to 24.9 percent (1933) in the United States.
Unemployment Rate – The percentage of unemployed among the total workers is considered an essential measure of measuring the economy. Unemployment increases during a recession.
Due to dwindling demand, industry and businesses exclude workers, “the result is that people do not have the money to spend. This further reduces the demand in the market; when the demand is less, it further impacts the earnings of the companies, and then some other people have to be out of work. “
Perhaps this is why the Prime Minister is repeatedly urging companies not to put people out of work, but how much has it been affected, since the lockdown, the crowd of workers forced to leave the streets and walk hundreds of kilometers back to the village has been cleared of.
After the Prime Minister’s speech of April 14, according to his promise, many sectors like agriculture, construction, and others have been exempted, 20 more areas will be relaxed, but more than announcements, it is essential that will be how they are implemented.
When will you get relaxed in lockdown?
Davinder Singh Gill, a farmer and small agent from Moga, Punjab, said that the purchase of wheat was a matter to start from April 15.
Still, till now people have not got the pass to carry the goods when asked by the market committee Lets talk about not being able to speak to Chandigarh, what do the farmers and followers know about what is happening in Chandigarh?
Farmer leader Randeep Singh Mana of Sonepat, Haryana, said that the problem would not be solved due to the relaxation of some areas and ban on others.
Like, the farmer has milk to sell, but the hotels, restaurants, confectionery shops are closed, then the demand for milk has reduced by 40%, the cow still needs fodder, and the cost of food has increased, then the value of the farmer is up gone, but the income has either gone missing or is much less than before.
There is news that laborers are not able to get food grains, vegetables, fruits to take them to the godowns in the panchayats of Punjab and Haryana because the migrant laborers from Bihar, Uttar Pradesh went back to the villages.
On the other hand, the machines going from Punjab-Haryana for harvesting in the villages of Bihar are not able to reach, says Aqeel Ahmad of Maharatha village of Muzaffarpur.
Recently, after the Finance Ministry’s package of 1.75 lakh crores, now the Reserve Bank of India has announced many steps. Still, experts say that it is also necessary to remember that the Indian economy has already implemented demonetization, GST, wrongly.
The reasons for doing it had already been affected, the bank had higher NPAs, and there was also a shortage of loan-seekers, to corona and control it: Talebandi and its impact on the entire global economy.
But the falling oil price and vast cash reserves with RBI can prove to be a plus for that.