Why Ron DeSantis should launch a normie insurgency

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DeSantis Says It’s Time for ‘Normal People’ to Take Back America

It’s been a tough few months for Ron DeSantis, and just yesterday, it was announced that the governor of Florida cut a third of his campaign staff.

With Donald Trump performing higher in national polls, DeSantis has dropped from nearly 30% earlier this year in those same polls to 20% (or less) today. The former president also leads by a wide margin in state primary elections. So what can Florida’s governor do?

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DeSantis’ GOP nomination bid rests on some online culture war issues. He launched his presidential campaign on Twitter. He is out to vaccinate America against the “woke mind virus.” Recent campaign videos have also featured a sad Wojack. DeSantis’ allies have attempted to cast Trump from the “right-wing” with respect to cultural issues, particularly sexuality.

Although this strategy may seem logical on the outside, attempting to lead an “anti-woke” insurgency against Trump may be too limiting for the DeSantis campaign. It may work against the governor of Florida.

Trump already has these issues, and although he may not always stick to a conservative line, his frequent provocations have helped make him a prodigy of hatred for Democrats. In an age of negative partisanship, it matters a lot among voters.

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Excessive focus on culture war issues could also hurt DeSantis among college-educated Republican primary voters. In national polling from Quinnipiac, he lost by 5 points in July after winning 29 points to “white” college-educated Republicans in April. They lost some voters to Trump in that period, but Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, and Chris Christie (who have also played relatively low-key topics of the culture battle) have also seen increases among that demographic over the past three months.

Instead, DeSantis may find more political opportunity in the “Normee” rebellion — presenting himself as an alternative to Trump that can help restore some sense (perhaps normalcy) to contemporary life.

It’s often overlooked in the national press, but DeSantis’ resounding 2022 victory in Florida has nothing to do with awareness or other cultural issues. Rather, his push for pay increases for teachers, his environmental record, and keeping Florida open during the pandemic worked much better with voters.

It was DeSantis’ way of preserving a normal life so kids could go to school and people could go to work. He portrayed himself as the adult in the room – against the excesses of technocrats and identity politics ideologues.

The broader political coalition that helped propel DeSantis back to the governor’s mansion could also impact his presidential campaign.

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Grants that help municipalities hire more police officers, investments in strategic industries and infrastructure, and efforts to reduce energy costs are policy moves that could address populist concerns and appeal to voters who aren’t Team Burn It All Down.

In the 2022 midterms, suburban communities gained ground in swing states, and “normee” Republicans often fared better than those associated with Trumpian disruption.

Georgia offers the clearest example of this trend: Fayette County, an emerging part of the Atlanta suburbs, went for Governor Brian Kemp by 14 points, but Herschel Walker by only three points in November (and in the December run-off won by one point). Kemp wins his race handily, while Walker is defeated.

If Republicans hope to form a national coalition that can win elections, they cannot abandon the economic and cultural middle ground. Combining a “normie” ethos with an approach that supports the middle class may help DeSantis craft an alternative to Trump’s political paradigm.